Apple's iOS Update Threatens Polling Industry

The Impact of Apple’s iOS 26 on Political Polling

In 2024, the public polling industry has found itself in a challenging position, as it continues to underestimate support for President Donald Trump. This issue is partly attributed to more individuals ignoring unwanted calls and texts from pollsters. Additionally, the upcoming release of Apple’s iOS 26 could further complicate the situation by making it harder and more expensive to reach potential respondents.

During an Apple press event in June, new features such as "on-device spam detection" and "the ability to screen new senders" were introduced. These updates have raised concerns within the political polling and fundraising communities. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, emphasized that the primary challenge for modern polling is reaching people in the first place. He explained that any measures that make it harder to connect with respondents are detrimental to the industry.

The Messages app in iOS 26 will now sort texts from unknown senders into a separate inbox. Users can choose to allow certain messages, such as urgent alerts or verification codes, while others will remain silenced until accepted. This feature, though designed to reduce spam, could inadvertently affect political communications. The National Republican Senatorial Committee expressed concern that even verified political messages might be treated as spam by default.

For pollsters, the implications are significant. If calls and texts are filtered out, obtaining statistically random and reliable results becomes more difficult, especially at the state and local levels. Franklin, who has been conducting polls since 2012, noted that cold-calling was once the norm, but most calls went unanswered. Only a small percentage of those who did answer agreed to participate in the poll.

This means that every call or text that goes ignored increases the time, cost, and effort required to find a respondent. Smaller operations and newer candidates may struggle more, as they often rely on cheaper “snapshot” polling done over texts due to financial constraints. Texts from these campaigns may go unread with the new iOS update.

State-level polling is particularly vulnerable compared to national polling. While national respondents often agree to be followed up with, state polls require more effort to ensure participation. Franklin highlighted that even asking someone to save a number leaves out many individuals, creating additional barriers.

Another major concern is the accuracy of workarounds. Traditional academic surveys rely on "probability sampling," which involves randomly selecting from a representative list like the voter file. This method ensures that the sample is statistically representative of the population. However, alternative methods such as non-probability sampling, like opt-in online polls, do not offer the same level of accuracy.

Democratic pollster Adam Carlson pointed out that self-opting into a poll does not provide a real cross-section of the population. Similarly, Republican pollster Conor Maguire noted that non-probability sampling is not scientifically sound. The preferred method of probability sampling allows for targeting specific demographics, making it more effective for reaching hard-to-reach groups.

Apple's new policy could potentially favor non-probability samples, which pollsters like Franklin view as a negative development. They argue that anything that makes high-quality probability sampling harder to achieve undermines the reliability of the polling industry.

Despite these challenges, the polling industry is exploring ways to adapt to new technologies. Some peers have spoken to their text vendors, who seem optimistic about the changes. While the impact may not be as devastating as initially feared, there is still a concern about increased costs across the board.

Overall, the introduction of Apple’s iOS 26 poses significant challenges for the polling industry. However, the industry remains resilient and is actively seeking solutions to maintain the quality and reliability of its work.