Back-to-School Spending Drops in D-FW but Remains Above National Average

Back-to-School Shopping Trends in North Texas

At the Neon Elephant, a children’s clothing store located in Highland Village, owner Jennifer Kaplinsky has noticed an increase in customer traffic as the school year approaches. The shop, known for carrying unique and harder-to-find brands, including local labels, has built a reputation for quality and durability. “When the customers come in, they know my apparel is quality and sturdy,” Kaplinsky said.

However, this year's back-to-school season is shaping up differently compared to 2024, when sales increased by approximately 20%. This year, Kaplinsky anticipates more stable results. This aligns with the current pricing environment, which has remained steady due to her early purchases before tariffs became a significant factor.

The peak of the back-to-school shopping season is fast approaching, with the state’s tax-free weekend running from Friday through Sunday. Many school districts, including Dallas and Fort Worth, are set to return to class next week. This event is crucial for retailers, as it offers a window for consumers to make purchases without additional taxes.

This shift in consumer behavior reflects a broader trend across the region. According to a Deloitte survey, Dallas-area shoppers expect to spend about $750 per child on back-to-school items this year, marking a 15% decrease from 2024. The decline is attributed to ongoing concerns about tariffs and an uncertain job market. In fact, 73% of locals in the survey reported seeing a similar or worse situation than last year, up from 67% in 2024. Additionally, 37% of respondents anticipate the economy will worsen in the next six months, an increase from about a third in the previous year.

Sam Loughry, a principal at Deloitte Consulting specializing in retail, noted, “I think there’s just some anxiety in the system.” Despite the overall decline, there is context to consider. The 2024 figures saw a significant increase, rising from $707 in 2023 to $885. This year, the U.S. average expected spending per child is $570, which is over $175 less than what is expected in North Texas.

Nationally, a larger share of people expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, along with those whose financial situations have not improved or have worsened over the past year. However, Loughry emphasized that the situation remains relatively strong in North Texas. “The parents in North Texas are really out there trying to make sure their kids have the best for back to school.”

Spending trends vary by product category. Locally, clothing expenditures are projected to be $281, down from $320 in 2024. Technology products are also expected to see a decline, with spending falling below $500. The drop in school supplies is smaller, indicating that some areas remain resilient.

When it comes to where consumers are making their purchases, mass-merchant stores continue to lead, followed by online retailers, specialty clothing stores, and other formats. This weekend, with Texas offering three days of tax-free shopping, will be particularly important for retailers.

Despite the economic uncertainties, the survey revealed that many parents are influenced by their children’s preferences. More than two-thirds of D-FW parents say their children often encourage them to spend more, and over 70% are persuaded to splurge on a first-day-of-school outfit. This dynamic highlights the emotional aspect of back-to-school shopping, where parental desires to provide the best for their children can override budget constraints.