Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month Low

Overview of Current Mortgage Rates

This week, mortgage rates saw a slight decline, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.63 percent, down from 6.75 percent in the previous week. This data comes from a recent lender survey conducted by HAWXTECH. The movement in rates is part of a broader trend that has seen them remain relatively stable over the past nine months.

Comparison of Mortgage Rates

Here is a breakdown of current mortgage rates compared to previous periods:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.63% (Current), 6.79% (4 Weeks Ago), 6.59% (One Year Ago), 6.79% (52-Week Average), 6.20% (52-Week Low)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate: 5.79% (Current), 5.85% (4 Weeks Ago), 5.89% (One Year Ago), 6.00% (52-Week Average), 5.40% (52-Week Low)
• 30-Year Jumbo Rate: 6.66% (Current), 6.75% (4 Weeks Ago), 6.80% (One Year Ago), 6.82% (52-Week Average), 6.36% (52-Week Low)

The 30-year fixed mortgages included in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.33 discount and origination points. Discount points are a way for borrowers to lower their mortgage rate, while origination points are fees charged by lenders to process the loan.

Understanding Mortgage Payments

Based on the current mortgage rates, the monthly payment for a typical home purchase can be calculated. For example, with a 20 percent down payment and a 6.63 percent mortgage rate, the monthly payment would be approximately $2,231. This amount represents about 26 percent of the national median family income for 2025, which stands at $104,200.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, notes that affordability remains a challenge for many potential homebuyers. She states, “Some buyers are waiting both for rates and prices to come down before they get into the market.”

Future Outlook for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates haven’t been this low since mid-October 2024. However, it's important to consider the context: Over the past nine months, rates have remained within a narrow range. These declines aren't as dramatic as the sharp drops seen early in the pandemic or the significant increases that occurred in 2022 and 2023 when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively.

At last week’s meeting, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. It's worth noting that mortgage rates don't respond directly to the Fed's decisions. Instead, they are influenced by investor behavior, particularly in the market for 10-year Treasury bonds. When there is uncertainty, investors tend to buy Treasury bonds, which can drive yields—and often mortgage rates—downward.

Economic Indicators and Market Trends

The U.S. economy appears to be recovering. The gross domestic product grew by an impressive 3 percent in the second quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's tariff policies have contributed to an increase in inflation, which rose to 2.7 percent in June from 2.4 percent in May. The Fed's target for inflation is 2 percent.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 10-year Treasury yields had fallen below 4.3 percent. This trend may influence future mortgage rate movements.

How Mortgage Rates Are Determined

HAWXTECH conducts a national survey of large lenders on a weekly basis. The survey includes rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 major U.S. markets. The Market Analysis team gathers rates and yields on banking deposits, loans, and mortgages. This survey has been conducted consistently for over 30 years, ensuring an accurate comparison across the country.

It's important to note that HAWXTECH's rates differ from other national surveys, such as Freddie Mac's weekly published rates. Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80 percent. The lenders surveyed each week include a mix of types—thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks, and mortgage lending companies—proportional to the level of mortgage business each type commands nationwide.